The RevOps Review w/ Bill Kantor
Founder & Managing Partner at Funnelcast
Bill Kantor, founder of Funnelcast, joined me on The RevOps Review to explore the limitations of traditional forecasting methods in B2B sales and introduce a modern, optimization-based approach. Bill shares insights into why most forecasting models fall short, the pitfalls of deal-level commits, and how probabilistic forecasting—powered by Monte Carlo simulations—can drive more informed planning and higher sales efficiency. Together, we break down how revenue teams can move away from unreliable roll-ups and toward proactive, daily deal prioritization.
Listen here: Spotify | Apple. Brought to you by Cognism.
On 6/3 join me for a conversation with my friends over at Revlitix.
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Key Takeaways
Traditional Forecasting Models Are Flawed
Most roll-ups rely on rep input and deal-stage categories (like “commit”), which are often inaccurate or too short-term.
Commit deals tend to close late in the quarter with minimal lead time, limiting their usefulness for forecasting.
Data-Driven Forecasting Has Limits in Low-Volume Environments
Weighted forecasts and predictive models are unreliable with small deal volumes (e.g., enterprise sales with 25–30 deals).
In these cases, roll-ups can still be useful, but with limited predictive power.
Monte Carlo Simulations Offer Better Insight
Probability-based forecasting helps RevOps teams assess risk, communicate ranges (not just point estimates), and plan with more clarity.
Forecasting should include low (90% confidence), median, and upside (10% chance) scenarios.
Focus Rankings Outperform Commit Lists
Funnelcast’s “focus rankings” prioritize deals daily based on expected value and risk trade-offs.
This approach delivers ~60% better prioritization compared to typical commit lists, helping sellers spend time on the most winnable deals.
Forecast Accuracy vs. Sales Maximization
Over-optimizing for forecast accuracy often reduces total sales.
Forecasts should inform strategy, not become the end goal; the goal is to change the outcome, not predict it perfectly.
Notable Quotes
“Nailing your forecast is incompatible with maximizing sales.”
“80% of 30% of your quarter doesn’t help you hit plan—you need earlier signals.”
“A third of commit deals close on the same day they’re committed. That’s not forecasting—it’s reporting.”
“Sales leaders should de-risk the curve and shift it right by acting earlier.”
“Focus rankings deliver better deal prioritization than commit lists—every day.”
Action Items for RevOps Leaders
Replace static roll-ups with probabilistic models that show revenue ranges.
Use Monte Carlo simulations to communicate risk-adjusted forecasts.
Prioritize deal-level execution using daily “focus rankings.”
De-risk the quarter early by surfacing at-risk deals before Week 10.
Train leadership teams to interpret distribution-based forecasts—not just single numbers.
Connect with Bill Kantor To explore Funnelcast’s sales optimization platform or access a free trial, visit funnelcast.com.